President Trump’s marquee legislative package—officially titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—has reached its most critical stage yet. As of June 30, the U.S. Senate is locked in a procedural gauntlet to amend and advance the sweeping tax-and-spending bill before a self-imposed July 4 deadline. With razor-thin margins, internal GOP tension, and sharp public scrutiny, the outcome will determine not only the fate of the legislation but also the future trajectory of Trump’s second-term policy agenda.
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Senate Enters Final Voting Marathon
The Senate began a prolonged vote-a-rama session early Monday, cycling through a barrage of proposed amendments, many from Democrats aimed at undoing steep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and green energy programs. Though unlikely to pass, these amendments serve to draw attention to what critics call dangerous reductions to social safety nets. The legislation, as it stands, would eliminate healthcare coverage for nearly 12 million Americans and slash federal food assistance by over $120 billion.
Republican leadership insists the bill represents a long-overdue reset of Washington’s fiscal discipline. It includes renewed Trump-era tax cuts, generous deductions for tipped and overtime income, and a strengthened child tax credit. While Trump and allies tout it as a win for working families and small businesses, the Congressional Budget Office released an updated estimate Monday, projecting the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.
GOP Unity Cracks Under Pressure
Behind closed doors, Republican moderates are signaling unease. Senator Thom Tillis, who announced he will not seek re-election, stated publicly that he could not support the bill due to the projected Medicaid losses in his home state. Senator Rand Paul also remains a vocal critic, citing fiscal irresponsibility. Their opposition leaves little room for error, as Senate Republicans can afford to lose only one vote before the bill’s viability collapses.
Despite those concerns, the Trump administration remains confident. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday that the President “fully expects Senate Republicans to deliver for the American people.” Behind the scenes, pressure is intensifying. GOP leaders are offering last-minute concessions and targeted policy sweeteners to secure holdout votes—an effort that underscores just how fragile support for the bill remains.
Fiscal Alarm Bells Ring Louder
The updated CBO report has fueled growing anxiety in both domestic and global financial circles. While the White House argues that long-term growth will outpace the deficit surge, analysts remain unconvinced. Moody’s and Fitch have both hinted at potential downgrades to the U.S. credit outlook, citing what they call “unbalanced structural changes” in the bill. The legislation’s repeal of most Inflation Reduction Act energy subsidies is also projected to cost more than 120,000 renewable energy jobs by 2034, especially in states like Texas and Arizona.
Market reactions have remained modest so far, but overseas investors are already signaling caution. A Reuters report published Monday cited European bond managers wary of increased Treasury issuance, warning of declining demand for long-term U.S. debt instruments. These signals could shape future borrowing costs and complicate efforts to fund long-term obligations if the legislation becomes law.
Public Sentiment and Political Stakes
Polling continues to show that the bill remains unpopular with voters. A Fox News survey released this morning shows only 38% of Americans support the legislation, with 59% opposing it. The majority of opposition stems from concerns over healthcare losses and perceived benefits for high-income earners and large corporations. Nonetheless, Trump’s base remains solidly behind the proposal, which has been heavily promoted at recent campaign rallies.
For President Trump, the stakes extend beyond policy. Passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill would cement a legislative legacy in his second term, while failure could fracture party unity ahead of the November midterms. As senators work through a grueling series of votes, the outcome could shape not only fiscal policy for years to come but also the political landscape heading into 2026.
