How the 2024 Election Is Changing Global Partnerships

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is not just a domestic event; its repercussions are felt globally, shaping alliances, trade, and policies in significant ways. With Donald Trump’s return to office, the “America First” philosophy is expected to influence international dynamics more than ever before. From multilateral forums like the G20 to bilateral relationships and trade agreements, nations are recalibrating their approaches to align—or distance themselves—from U.S. policies. This election is prompting both challenges and opportunities as countries reassess their priorities and partnerships. Understanding these shifts is crucial to grasp the evolving landscape of global cooperation and competition.

The G20 and the Challenges of Global Leadership

The G20 has long served as a platform for addressing global challenges, but its cohesion is being tested in 2024. With South Africa leading the group this year, the focus has shifted to pressing issues like climate change and economic inequality, even as uncertainties about U.S. involvement loom large. President Trump’s “America First” agenda has historically deprioritized multilateral cooperation, raising concerns about the G20’s ability to act effectively. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has expressed confidence in the group’s “shock absorbers,” but questions remain about its ability to withstand a fragmented approach.

Emerging economies within the G20, such as India and Brazil, are stepping up to fill gaps left by wavering U.S. leadership. These nations are emphasizing climate resilience and inclusive growth as priorities, aiming to sustain momentum on global issues. However, the absence of strong U.S. backing complicates efforts to reach consensus on critical policies. While the G20’s resilience may keep it afloat, the group’s ability to drive meaningful change could hinge on its capacity to adapt to a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Europe’s Strategic Autonomy and Economic Recalibration

Europe is responding to the 2024 election by doubling down on its pursuit of strategic autonomy, a goal emphasized in recent years. With Trump’s potential disengagement from traditional alliances, European leaders are prioritizing defense spending and industrial independence. France and Germany, in particular, are spearheading initiatives to reduce reliance on U.S. support in security and technology. These efforts reflect a pragmatic approach to ensuring stability while addressing concerns over U.S. unpredictability.

Economic partnerships between the U.S. and the EU are also being recalibrated to align with shifting priorities. European leaders like Germany’s Olaf Scholz are exploring ways to strengthen intra-European trade and reduce dependence on U.S. imports. Meanwhile, the U.K., under Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer, is actively seeking closer economic and security ties with the EU. This recalibration reflects a broader strategy of self-reliance, underscoring Europe’s intent to thrive in a world where U.S. leadership is no longer guaranteed.

Shifts in U.S.-China Relations and Their Global Implications

The U.S.-China relationship remains a focal point in global politics, and Trump’s return is poised to heighten tensions. His proposed tariffs and tough rhetoric toward Beijing could spark another wave of trade disputes, with significant implications for global supply chains. While some businesses see these policies as opportunities to negotiate favorable terms, the broader impact on economic stability is uncertain. Global markets are bracing for potential disruptions, and smaller economies dependent on U.S.-China trade are caught in the crossfire.

China’s response to Trump’s policies will be equally critical in shaping global partnerships. Beijing is likely to double down on its Belt and Road Initiative, strengthening ties with other nations to offset U.S. pressure. At the same time, countries reliant on Chinese investments may reconsider their alignment to avoid antagonizing the U.S. This complex interplay underscores how the U.S.-China dynamic continues to reshape the broader international order, forcing nations to adapt to shifting alliances and priorities.

The Fragile Balance of U.S.-Australia-China Relations

Australia finds itself navigating a precarious path between its largest trading partner, China, and its key security ally, the U.S. The return of Trump has heightened these tensions, with his administration likely to push Australia to align more closely with U.S. strategic goals. However, China has already issued warnings against jeopardizing its relationship with Australia, emphasizing the mutual benefits of their economic ties. This puts Canberra in a challenging position as it seeks to balance its economic reliance on Beijing with its security commitments to Washington.

Australia’s approach to these pressures will have significant implications for the Asia-Pacific region. If it leans too heavily toward U.S. policies, it risks straining its vital trade relationship with China, which could impact key industries like mining and agriculture. Conversely, maintaining neutrality could create friction with the U.S. and strain defense cooperation. As these dynamics unfold, Australia’s role in regional stability may serve as a barometer for how smaller nations navigate great power rivalries.

The Future of Trade Under Trump’s Tariff Policies

Trade has emerged as one of the most contentious aspects of Trump’s presidency, and his return in 2024 signals renewed economic nationalism. Proposed tariffs on major trade partners like Mexico, Canada, and China have raised concerns among economists about their potential to drive up consumer prices. These measures could lead to inflationary pressures in the U.S. while creating instability in global supply chains. Affected countries may retaliate with their own trade barriers, further escalating tensions and complicating global commerce.

Beyond immediate economic impacts, these policies are likely to strain international relationships. Nations like Canada and Mexico, which are deeply integrated with the U.S. economy through trade agreements like the USMCA, may seek alternative markets to reduce dependency. At the same time, global organizations such as the World Trade Organization could face challenges in mediating disputes amid rising protectionism. These shifts highlight the fragility of a global trade system grappling with increasing unilateralism from one of its most influential players.

Global Environmental Agreements Under Scrutiny

The 2024 election is also affecting global environmental initiatives, as Trump’s policies historically deprioritize climate change on the international stage. One significant concern is the U.S.’s role in the UN treaty on plastic pollution, which seeks to limit plastic production and promote sustainability. Without strong U.S. backing, the treaty’s effectiveness could be diminished, creating uncertainty about its enforcement and progress. Other nations may be forced to step up, but their ability to drive change without the U.S. remains uncertain.

Despite potential setbacks, some countries and regions are intensifying their efforts to address environmental challenges. The European Union, for example, continues to lead in climate policies, advancing initiatives like the Green Deal to reduce emissions and foster renewable energy development. Similarly, smaller nations vulnerable to climate change are forming coalitions to amplify their voices on the global stage. These efforts underline the growing divide between countries committed to climate action and those hesitant to prioritize it, a divide that could widen under Trump’s leadership.

Rising Regional Alliances in a Polarized World

As U.S. policies grow more unilateral under Trump, regional alliances are becoming a key strategy for nations seeking stability. Groups like the European Union, ASEAN, and the African Union are strengthening internal cooperation to reduce reliance on the U.S. These alliances focus on trade, security, and technological collaboration, creating a counterbalance to the unpredictability of global superpowers. Regional blocs are emerging as critical players in addressing issues that require collective action, such as climate change and economic inequality.

These alliances are also reshaping global power dynamics, highlighting the rise of a multipolar world. As regions strengthen their internal ties, they are better positioned to negotiate with major powers like the U.S. and China from a position of unity. This approach not only fosters resilience but also encourages more equitable decision-making on the global stage. By embracing regionalism, nations are finding new pathways to collaboration, navigating a polarized world with greater agency and independence.

A New Era for International Relations

The 2024 U.S. election has set the stage for profound changes in global partnerships, forcing nations to adapt to shifting priorities and policies. While some are strengthening regional alliances, others are reevaluating trade and environmental commitments in the face of uncertainty. These evolving dynamics underscore the complexity of navigating a world increasingly defined by competition and collaboration. Ultimately, the decisions made in this moment will shape not only global partnerships but also the shared future of nations in an interconnected world.